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Ireland
needs to be in the European Defense Huddle
Introduction
It’s time for Ireland to
acknowledge that it is literally a sitting duck in a rapidly
changing world where functioning democracies, strategic military
alliances and all forms of political and diplomatic norms, are being
cast aside by rogue world leaders and ruthless dictators for a new world order
controlled by autocrats and oligarchs. Whatever reason
Ireland may have had in the past for its
neutral security policy and military non-alignment is now
irrelevant and, furthermore, it puts Ireland in the cross hairs of a
bad actor such as Russia because of its strategic geographical
location on major transatlantic sea, air and communications cables
routes between North America and northern Europe.
In a perfect world Ireland would
be ready for any contingencies that comes its way. Endowed with the
best that nature offers, including a strategic location, an ideal
climate, fertile soil, abundant fresh water, a living shoreline and
stunning landscapes, all the prerequisites that nature offers for
building a secure and prosperous society.
However, all is not well in this
earthly paradise. Despite nature’s bounty, plus a manageable
population and a highly educated workforce, Ireland lags behind most
other advanced countries in self-reliance and innovation. Although
it has and still produces some of the best minds in the world, it
nonetheless has failed to utilize that talent to build
an exceptional society, the envy of
modernity. Not so for other governments around the world who
takes full advantage of the enormous pool of talent and expertise our
exiles offer.
Background
The history of the
Irish Free State since its establishment in 1922 is replete with
major failures brought about by government neglect or mismanagement.
The most blatant of these include, 1) the willful dehumanization
of unmarried mothers and their babies in church-run mother and baby
homes during a period of over fifty years, 2) the inability of the
state to provide a living or adequate housing for millions of its
citizens who were and still are forced into economic exile, 3) the
shameless ceding of responsibility to others for building and
directing Ireland’s modern-day economy woefully over dependent on
multinational enterprises (MNEs) and 4) the failure of
successive Irish governments to reunite Ireland in the hundred years
since it was partitioned. With regards to successes, most if not
all have come about as a result of Ireland’s entry into the European
Economic Community in 1973.
Irish governments tend to let
others do the heavy lifting and as a consequence are unprepared to
steer the ship of state through turbulent times as it is now
facing. As described in the opening chapter of this article, the
established world order is changing rapidly, upending long
established trade agreements and military and cyber security
alliances. The good place Ireland has inhabited for the past fifty
years is now in the crosshairs of its main benefactor, the United
States (U.S.) who has turned sour and menacing. As a result, the
favorable trade regimen that fueled Ireland’s economy is now flagged
as an unfair trade practice and facing
possible retaliation. As a consequence, the only option for
Ireland is to wait
it out and hope for the best.
The
North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) security umbrella
that shielded Europe and Ireland since the last world war may be
abandoned by the U.S., exposing Europe, including Ireland, to
Russian expansionism. Ireland who is not a member of NATO is
nonetheless shielded because of its strategic location. Again like
the trade situation, the only option available to Ireland regarding
its security is to throw its lot with Europe and hope for the best.
Maneuvering to remain
neutral in a world in flux.
Regarding damage to the economy,
it’s impossible short term to compensate for the damage that could
result from the
imposition of tariffs, or the repatriation of profits generated
by U.S. based MNEs by the U.S government. The problem Ireland is
now facing is caused by its own over dependance on MNEs tax revenue
to fund its social welfare budget, a risky policy that could
backfire during economic downturns or geopolitical conflicts. If the
U.S. government carries through on its threat to impose tariffs
and/or the repatriation of MNE profits, Ireland will probably have
to resort to borrowing to fund its social welfare programs. In a
different world, tax revenue from MNEs would be earmarked for
infrastructure projects and rainy day funds that could be paused or
slowed down in a crunch. Unfortunately, that’s not how the Irish
government operates.
In 2022, Ireland defense budget
was $1.16 billion an expenditure equal to 0.23% of its GPD. In
2022, the U.S. spent $776.94 billion on defense an expenditure equal
to 3.45% of its GDP. In the same year England spent $68.46 billion
on defense, an expenditure equal to 2.23% of its GDP. Ireland’s
defense budget for 2025 is $1.49 an expenditure equal to 1.4% of its
GDP that according to Irish government reports is in line with other small
European countries.
At present Ireland has an active
Defense Force of approximately 8,500 military personnel for all
three branches that includes the Army, Air Corps and Naval Services.
Realistically, it will take more than the equivalent of two (2)
Brigades and a defense budget of $1.49 billion for Ireland to
safeguard its territorial integrity and security in a world beset by
marauding superpowers, unstable autocrats and land grabbers. Going
it alone to defend a country surrounded by oceans and 4,677
miles of coastline with a token military force is unrealistic.
As of now, Ireland’s military
role on the world stage has been limited to peace keeping under the
auspices of United Nation (UN) mandates. It has no combat experience
as it is prohibited by a so-called
triple lock system from engaging in combat. Due to a recent U.S.
policy shift away from supporting the Ukraine and the possible a
U.S. exit from the NATO, Ireland has awoken to its lack of an
effective military deterrence capability. In an effort to rectify
the situation, the government increased its defense budget and did
away with the triple lock system, thus allowing for the deployment
of peacekeepers without UN approval.
Conclusion
These minuscule policy changes
will not be enough to bring other European countries to Ireland’s
defense if attacked or threatened by Russia or some other hostile
actors. If the U.S. makes good on its treat to withdraw from the
NATO, Ireland must be willing
to put boots on the ground as part of a
European Coalition of the Willing i.e., a military alliance,
otherwise it will be left to defend for itself.
Now that reality has bitten, Ireland together with other
European countries, must build up its military capabilities at a
much faster rate to ensure European self-reliance in face of further
Russian aggression.
The ongoing Russian war of
aggression in Ukraine and the repercussions of the recent United
States elections have placed Ireland in a situation that demands a
serious rethink of its place in Europe and what it needs to do to
defend itself. Tweaking its security apparatus while remaining on
the sidelines will not keep it safe from a rampaging Russia. Nothing
less than a full-throated commitment to a European defensive bulwark
will suffice. Sitting back while Europe bleeds is a non-starter,
akin to letting others walk the minefield.
Contributed by TMMTP |
