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Political Representation in a Reunited Ireland
Why change is
necessary.
The advent of a reunited Ireland would present a unique opportunity
to set anew the political landscape in Ireland, long beset by
monarchism, deism, patriarchy, gerrymandering ,
sectarianism
and
the cult-like worship of politicians and political
parties. For this to happen, the existing political
systems in both partitioned states, viz, the Republic of Ireland and
Northern Ireland, must be replaced by a modern
democratic classless society as described in the Eire Athaontaithe
Reunited Ireland proposal.
The reunited Ireland envisioned will be an all-Ireland
Federal Parliamentary Republic comprised of three distinct regions
namely, 1) the
Ulster Region
encompassing the nine counties of Ulster, 2) the Munster/Connacht
Region encompassing the eleven counties of Munster and Connacht, and
3) the Leinster Region encompassing the twelve counties of
Leinster.
The
union of Connacht and Munster into a single region would
lend economic equity and political balance to what would be
lacking in a standalone Connacht and to a lesser extent, in
a standalone Munster.
The proposed federation would be underpinned by a new constitution
that would provide for the allotment of
governmental powers between a national and regional governments.
If Ireland were to be reunited under a unitary government system,
the resultant concentration of political power in one center could
prove problematic. In such a situation, a corrupt or charismatic
leader, with sufficient political backing, could take control of
independent government institutions including the judiciary for
nefarious or narcissistic purposes. One need only look to
Europe and the Middle East where autocratic minded leaders in
democratic countries have managed to bring independent judicial
systems and state security apparatuses under their direct control
--- powerful weapons to do with as they wish.
Ireland has had its share of such characters in the past including
Richard Mulcahy, Eoin O’Duffy, Eamonn deValera, William Craig,
Edward Carson and Ian Paisley. There is no reason to believe that
the situation in Ireland is that much different today than it was in
their time. The lure of absolute control is intoxicating and always
present.
The proposed federal
system with multiple power centers and its underpinning constitution
would be a bulwark against such unscrupulous leaders or wannabe
strongmen.
Political
Representation in the new Federal System.
One of the aims of the transition process would be to utilize as
many of the existing processes, tools and systems to reduce costs
and make the changeover as uncomplicated and seamless as possible.
To that end, the first order of business would be to undertake a
process analysis to delineate and guide the transition process. The
analysis would be augmented by a detailed schedule listing the
steps, tasks, dependencies and decision points critical to a
successful transition.
Amongst the first items on the transition schedule would be the
election of national and regional representatives as their
participation in the transition process would be critical.
In order to hold
elections, the existing breakdown of electoral constituencies in
both existing states would be used, albeit with the necessary
changes/adjustments. To do so, a thorough understanding of the
existing populations and electoral systems outlined below would be
in order.
Breakdown of
the Population
The population in
Ireland’s thirty-two counties is 7.059,639. The breakdown between
the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is as follows.
The Republic of
Ireland has a population of 5,149,139. Source: Census of Population
2022
–Summary
Results - CSO - Central Statistics Office
Northern Ireland has a
population of 1,910,500. Source: 2021 Census, Northern Ireland
Statistics and Research Agency (nisra.gov.uk)
Breakdown of
Constituencies and Representatives
The Republic of
Ireland has or will shortly have forty-three multi-member
constituencies and one hundred and seventy-four representatives. On
average each representative will represent 29,593 constituents. The
number of representatives per constituency will vary from three to
five.
Source: Electoral
Commission recommendations of August 30th. 2023.
Northern Ireland has
eighteen multi-member constituencies and ninety representatives. On
average each representative represents 21,500 constituents. The
number of representatives per constituency is five.
Source: Section 33 of
the Northern Ireland Act 1998.
Realignment of
Constituencies and Representatives
In the context of a
reunited Ireland, the following adjustments to constituencies and
representation would be necessary to set the stage for the
transition from the existing unitary systems to the proposed three
region federal system.
At present, each representative (MLA) in
Northern Ireland represents on average 21,500 constituents, whereas
in the Republic of Ireland each representative (TD) represents, on
average 29,953 constituents. To level the playing field, it would
be necessary to reduce the number of MLAs from ninety to
seventy-two. To reach that number, each of the eighteen
constituencies in Northern Ireland would lose one MLA.
The reunification of
Ulster would result in the two constituencies of Donegal and
Monaghan/Cavan and their ten representatives transferring to Ulster,
the de facto Northern Region in a reunited Ireland. With the
addition of the two constituencies, the new Northern Region would
have twenty constituencies and eighty representatives. Each
representative would represent, on average, 27,808 constituents.
As a consequence of
the transfer of the two constituencies and ten representatives, the
number of electoral constituencies and representatives in the
Republic of Ireland would be reduced from forty-three to forty-one
from one hundred and seventy-four to one hundred and sixty-four,
respectively. Each representative would represent, on average,
29,482 constituents.
Supremacy in a
Reunited Ireland.
In an all-Ireland
Federal Parliamentary
Republic, the constitution would be the Supreme Law of the
Land.
The President of the
Republic, together with the Supreme Court would be the guarantors of
the constitution.
National and
Regional Representation in a Reunited Ireland
Using the above
totals, the number of representatives in the national parliament (Dá ıl
Éıreann) together with the number of constituencies and
representatives in each of the three Federal Regions, would be as
follows.
Dáıl Éıreann would have sixty-one
representatives, one from each of the sixty-one constituencies.
The 9-county
Ulster Region
would have twenty constituencies and
eighty representatives.
The 12- county
Leinster Region
would have twenty-four
constituencies and ninety-seven representatives,
The 12-county Munster & Connacht
Region would have seventeen
constituencies sixty-seven representatives.
Elections in a Reunited Ireland
Presidential elections would use the
Instant-Runoff-Voting (IRV) voting system, the same system presently
being used in the Republic for presidential elections.
In national parliament election, one
candidate from each of the sixty-one constituencies, would be
elected to serve in the national parliament (Dáıl Éıreann) using the
Instant-Runoff-Voting (IRV) voting system, the same system presently
being used in the Republic for presidential elections.
For representatives to the Regional
Parliaments, candidate would be elected using the Proportional
Representation with a Single-Transferable-Vote (PR-STV) voting
system, the same system presently being used in the Republic for
electing representatives (TDs) to D áil
Eireann.
Conclusion
As mentioned in other
articles on this website, a new constitution establishing the basis
for a reunited Ireland would be approved and in place before
proceeding with the transition process.
Amongst its many
provisions, the constitution would establish the framework and
methodology for conducting elections. The details and adjustments
for population increases and demographic shifts would be left up to
legislators to evaluate and approve in a manner compliant with the
constitution.
The prospect of
setting up a new elections system for a regionalized federal system
before starting the transition process would be a daunting and
time-consuming task. The alternative option described herein is a
viable option as it would allow the transition to proceed without
undue delay. It would also allow the new legislative bodies
the time and resources needed to have the new system in place for
the next census or election cycle.
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